California Public Health Case Studies

Medi-Cal Coverage, Renewals & Provider Claims

Enrollment retention, provider directory audits, and billing risk screens across California Medi-Cal records.

Automated Renewal Rules vs. Navigator Outreach in Medi-Cal Retention

Compares automated ex parte data checks against clinic navigator assistance where eligible families lose coverage during renewal.

Single-County Before-and-After Counts vs. Statewide Medi-Cal Trends

Compares a county's post-outreach enrollment change against statewide Medi-Cal unwinding trends to isolate local program lift.

Enrolled Provider Directories vs. Active Medi-Cal Claims and Sanction Lists

Compares broad provider enrollment registries against active paid claims and federal and state exclusion lists.

Full-List Provider Risk Screening vs. Active-Only Billing Subsets

Shows how testing a fraud screen only on providers still billing in the latest year drops sanctioned billers who already exited.

Separating Real Program Outliers From Small-Sample Noise on County Dashboards

Compares raw county and specialty alert rankings against smoothed rates that adjust for small denominators and multiple checks.

Matching the Evaluation Design to the Stage of a Policy Roll-Out

Shows when a cross-sectional map is enough to target outreach and when a comparison group is needed to defend a budget.

Community Health Workers & Clinical Financing

Fee-for-service clinic billing, Year-1 agency payroll outlays, and acute-care hospital savings.

Per-Visit Medi-Cal Billing vs. Acute-Care Hospital Offsets

Compares direct fee-for-service clinic reimbursement against emergency department and inpatient cost offsets.

Year-One Agency Payroll Outlays vs. Multi-Year Hospital Savings

Separates upfront county hiring costs in Year 1 from downstream hospital savings captured by Medi-Cal managed care plans.

Comparing Program Expansion Against the Next-Best Care Model

Compares an intensive clinical intervention against a lower-cost Community Health Worker baseline rather than against doing nothing.

Comparing Chronic Disease Management and Mortality Gains on a Common Scale

Translates diabetes control and prevented deaths into quality-adjusted life years and federal valuation benchmarks.

Keeping Primary Care Pathways Open When Modeling Hospital Savings

Shows why adjusting for post-enrollment clinic visits subtracts out the primary care pathway that prevents hospital stays.

Food Security, CalFresh & Local Cost of Living

Post-rent household food budgets, retail store access, and local operating cost adjustments across California counties.

Uniform Federal Poverty Cutoffs vs. Post-Rent Household Food Budgets

Compares 200% federal poverty eligibility against money left for food after rent in Marin, Fresno, Nevada, and Santa Clara counties.

Household Food Shortfalls and Chronic Disease Hospital Costs

Examines how post-rent food shortfalls and diabetes care costs reinforce each other and how grocery support shifts emergency visits.

Supermarket Distance Cutoffs vs. Neighborhood Poverty in Food Access Screening

Shows why store-distance screens in urban counties flag high-income foothills while missing low-income renters near grocers.

Nominal Dollar Grants vs. Cost-Adjusted Clinic Purchasing Power

Compares equal dollar grants against local wage and rent indices across coastal and Central Valley counties.

How Permit Deduplication and Billing Rule Updates Shift Official Access Counts

Shows how removing multi-counter permit duplicates in food registries or updating telehealth codes changes reported access.

County Public Health Budgets & Mortality Returns

Multi-year county spending panels, crisis-driven funding adjustments, and federal valuation sensitivity bounds.

Crisis-Driven Health Spending vs. Multi-Year Preventive Mortality Reductions

Separates emergency funds added during disease spikes from baseline prevention budgets across California counties.

Same-Year Spending Correlations vs. Supply-Driven Public Health Budget Shifts

Traces how county spending estimates shift as models add county baselines, multi-year lags, and governance-driven budget rules.

Testing County Prevention Returns Across Low, Central, and High Federal Value Rules

Tests whether county prevention spending clears the break-even line across all federal valuation tiers and lower effect bounds.

Single-Year Mortality Spikes vs. Multi-Year County Baselines

Shows why small counties selected after a single-year mortality spike naturally settle toward their multi-year baseline.

Separating Local Public Health Shifts From Statewide Shocks

Uses unaffected comparison counties to separate local program changes from concurrent statewide economic and pandemic shifts.

Testing How Much Post-Policy Trend Drift a County Evaluation Can Withstand

Quantifies how much post-policy trend divergence a county panel evaluation can absorb before the finding reaches zero.